http://blog.mischel.com/2008/09/15/hurricane-rescue/ Musings on technology and life Tue, 06 Jan 2009 19:42:58 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 http://blog.mischel.com/2008/09/15/hurricane-rescue/comment-page-1/#comment-4274 Ken Wed, 17 Sep 2008 19:53:25 +0000 http://blog.mischel.com/?p=224#comment-4274 Several thoughts come to mind: 1) Forecasting these storms is still more art than science... This was forecast to be a cat 3-4 storm and could hit anywhere from almost Mexico to Louisiana. Look at the number of places it _could_ have hit based on several different models, but missed. Which model is the right one? 2) There are the adventure seekers, of course, but there are also those who have heard the government cry "wolf" about the actual need for evacuation. The storms have not been as bad as predicted, they have missed the predicted landfall area, etc. Then, when the storm has passed, the government won't let the property owners back to assess the damage or protect their property. In many cases, if the storm didn't destroy their property, looters stole it. 3) With the Stupid Motorist Law, the driver can see the danger. With hurricanes, it's an assessment of the probability of a future event. Both of my kids are in AZ. It's pretty well established that when a thunderstorm hits, there is going to be flash flooding and you may not be the brightest bulb in the box if you choose to drive thru the 6 foot deep river of fast flowing water you see in front of you. 4) As always, hindsight is always 20/20. 5) Nevertheless, I think your idea has merit. Several thoughts come to mind:
1) Forecasting these storms is still more art than science… This was forecast to be a cat 3-4 storm and could hit anywhere from almost Mexico to Louisiana. Look at the number of places it _could_ have hit based on several different models, but missed. Which model is the right one?
2) There are the adventure seekers, of course, but there are also those who have heard the government cry “wolf” about the actual need
for evacuation. The storms have not been as bad as predicted, they have missed the predicted landfall area, etc. Then, when the storm has passed, the government won’t let the property owners back to assess the damage or protect their property. In many cases, if the
storm didn’t destroy their property, looters stole it.
3) With the Stupid Motorist Law, the driver can see the danger. With hurricanes, it’s an assessment of the probability of a future event. Both of my kids are in AZ. It’s pretty well established that when a thunderstorm hits, there is going to be flash flooding and you may not be the brightest bulb in the box if you choose to drive thru the 6 foot deep river of fast flowing water you see in front of you.
4) As always, hindsight is always 20/20.
5) Nevertheless, I think your idea has merit.

]]> http://blog.mischel.com/2008/09/15/hurricane-rescue/comment-page-1/#comment-4251 Michael Covington Mon, 15 Sep 2008 22:10:43 +0000 http://blog.mischel.com/?p=224#comment-4251 Great idea! "If you stay, you will be charged $10,000 to be rescued." Puts a rather different spin on "I'd rather ride it out," doesn't it? Great idea! “If you stay, you will be charged $10,000 to be rescued.” Puts a rather different spin on “I’d rather ride it out,” doesn’t it?

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