Hotter ‘N Hell Hundred – The Ride

The ride was scheduled to start at about 7:15, and this event was serious about being on time. Even at 6:30, there was a huge number of people heading towards the start. We took up at least six city blocks on a four-lane (maybe five-lane) road. The number of people there was just astounding. I’m disappointed that none of my crowd pictures turned out well. Standing there on the edge of the road, I could easily see 10,000 cyclists lined up to start the ride.

I did manage to get an okay picture of the monster, or whatever they call it. I think this is the ride’s mascot.

I also managed to get somebody else to take a shot of Frank and me before the ride. Unfortunately, I didn’t get any pictures during or after the ride, except for one posed shot that I’ll have to pay for. (And will post here when I get it.)

After a few announcements and the traditional singing of the National Anthem–it was amazing how the chatter stopped with the first notes of the Anthem–a flight of four fighters (I think they were F-15s, but I could be mistaken) from Sheppard Air Force Base did a low fly-by, and as they passed the cannon fired to signal the start of the ride.

It’s hard to explain to somebody who hasn’t experienced it just what the start of a large bike ride is like. We’re all packed together far too tightly to just get on our bikes and start riding. They line us up by expected finishing time, with the faster riders in the front. Those of us further back end up walking a hundred yards or more, slowly pushing our bikes along until we get to the start line, where the road widens and the space in front of us opens up enough that we can get on the saddle and start pedaling. Then, we slowly increase speed, always being mindful of the people in front and the speed demons coming up to pass from behind. The key here is to keep your eyes on what’s happening ahead of you, keep riding in as straight a line as possible, and always look carefully behind before making any lateral changes. You have to pay attention to hand signals from riders you’re approaching, keep your ears open for shouts of “hole” or “bottle” or “glass” from riders warning of hazards ahead of you, and “on your left” from people coming up from behind. I’m surprised at how many riders were wearing ear buds and listening to music at this point. I can maybe understand listening to music once you get out on the road and away from the crowds, but at the start of a big ride like this, you really shouldn’t have anything interfering with your awareness of the situation.

I’ve done quite a few of these organized rides, and I’m fairly accustomed to the things that happen at the beginning. But it seemed to me that there were a whole lot more lost water bottles–especially at the beginning of the ride–than I’d ever seen previously. The first five miles was a veritable obstacle course of bottles rolling around on the road. It’s a good thing we had a four-lane road all to ourselves for the first 10 miles or so.

I felt good. The temperature at the start was about 70 degrees, and the forecast was for a high in the low 90s and a south wind at about 7 MPH. The route is roughly a rectangle that’s approximately 35 miles east-west and 15 miles north-south, with the start point about 10 miles west of the southeast corner. The ride proceeds clockwise, so we headed west, then north, a very long stretch across the “top” as we head back east, and finally a meandering south and southwest grind into the wind back to Wichita Falls.

Frank seemed to like being left alone to zone out, so I left him behind shortly after the 10 mile mark and set to the business of riding. I couldn’t get over the number of people out there. At one point–near the 15 mile mark–I topped a little rise (the flatlanders called it a hill) and could see two or three miles in front of me. As far as I could see, the road (two lanes by this time, but with decent shoulders) was packed with cyclists. I’d never seen that many people still together 15 miles into a ride. It thinned out over time, of course, but in the entire 100 miles there never was a point that I couldn’t see several dozen riders sharing the road with me.

I do most of my training alone, so I’m still a bit uncomfortable joining a paceline, in part because I’m afraid I’ll do something wrong and cause a wreck, and in part because I have a difficult time trusting that the people in front or behind me won’t cause me to wreck. On the plus side, cooperating in a paceline can save you a lot of energy and increase your overall speed because you get the benefit of drafting off the others and–especially in a big group–only have to hammer it out up front very rarely. I joined a few pacelines along the way, pitching in to help when it was my turn, and had a few impromptu lines form behind me from time to time when I’d pass a group of riders. I stayed with one group for a good 10 miles or so until they pulled off at a rest stop while I kept going. I just couldn’t find a group that was maintaining a speed that I found comfortable.

Riding alone has its benefits. I can share short conversations with people and then fall back or speed up, wishing them a good ride and going back to enjoying the sights and the antics of the riders and spectators. And there were lots of spectators. Every little town we rode through had groups of people sitting along the road cheering us on. And, of course, there’s the mild amusement of rural Texas. The little town of Electra, Texas, for example, boasts “The Pumpjack Capital of Texas!” They even have a Pumpjack Festival. There were a few others I laughed at as I passed, but I don’t recall them now. And although I had my camera in my jersey pocket, the road was too crowded at first and I was too exhausted later to even think about fiddling with a camera while I was riding.

The town of Electra is at the 30 mile mark. I had originally planned to stop there for water, but with the cool weather and the light tailwind for the previous 10 miles I hadn’t had to drink as much as I expected. I elected to push on to the 40 mile mark before stopping. I was moving along at a good clip, too. At the 30 mile point, I was averaging almost 21 MPH–much faster than I expected, even on this flat course.

Skipping the 30 mile water stop was a sound decision. I really did have enough water and food to take me to the 40 mile point without trouble. At about 37 miles, I made the turn from north to east and began the 40 mile trek across the “top” of the course. I picked up another paceline and burned a little too much energy staying with them before I realized that I couldn’t maintain that heart rate. I was letting the excitement of the ride and my surprising speed overrule my judgement, and as the 40 mile stop approached I decided that I could make it to the 50 mile stop. That was a very poor decision. I had less than half a bottle of water left and no food except some peanuts, and I’d already determined that I didn’t like peanuts quite that much for riding food. Two miles later I realized that I’d done a stupid thing, but there was no way I was going back.

One thing non-cyclists don’t realize is how rough these country roads can be. A road that feels just a little rough when you’re driving over it in a car can be torture on a bicycle. In a car, you’re riding on tires that are at least six inches wide and sitting on a soft seat insulated from the road by springs and shock absorbers. You don’t even notice small shallow dents in the road. A road bicycle tire, on the other hand, is about an inch wide and there is no suspension. The fork and frame absorb some of the bumps on the road, but you feel a two inch wide hole that’s only 1/4 inch deep. Maintenance on these country roads consists of chip sealing, which results in less-than-smooth (to be kind) riding surface. After the first 30 miles or so, it seemed like the entire ride was on chipsealed roads. A few miles of chipseal is a minor annoyance. 10 miles or more is just punishing. Since the bike doesn’t absorb the shock, you have to: in your hands, wrists, shoulders, back, and butt. There’s no doubt that rough roads wear you down.

The “50 mile” stop was actually at 54 miles, and I was out of water. I stopped at the rest area, refilled my water bottles, drank as much as I could comfortably hold, ate some fruit and cookies, and lounged around for a few minutes. They had a band called, I think, Red Dirt Surf, playing surf guitar music. I like surf guitar in small doses, and it really seemed to fit here. I also chatted for a few minutes with the ham radio operators who had a tent there at the stop before climbing on my bike and heading out again. I had been off the bike for about 12 minutes.

I finished the first 54 miles of the ride without stopping, with an average speed of 19.8 MPH, which I’m pretty sure is the fastest 50 miles I’ve ever ridden on a bike. But when I pulled away from that stop, I realized two things. One, the wind had picked up a bit. It was still from the south, but it had become strong enough to be a nuisance as I headed east. The other thing I realized was that I wasn’t going to finish the second half of the ride nearly as fast as I did the first half. I was mildly dehydrated, and I had burned a little bit more energy than I should have. I made a conscious decision to slow down a bit, drink more, and try to rebuild some energy.

It’s funny how one’s memory of things changes once the pain sets in. After leaving that rest area, I stopped looking at the sights and concentrated more on my riding: picking the smoothest possible line (in the right tire track, usually), maintaining a good posture, pedaling as smoothly as possible, keeping an eye on my heart rate monitor, and remembering to drink regularly. My stomach was a little upset (I think it was the peanuts), so I had a tough time getting myself to eat very much. At least I put Gatorade mix in two of my three water bottles and forced myself to drink it even though by now I’d become pretty sick of the taste. About the only things I remember between mile 54 and mile 69 where I stopped again were the town of Burkburnett (the biggest town we passed through, other than Wichita Falls), and the little party going on at Hell’s Gate–the cutoff point that riders have to make before 12:30 if they’re going to do the entire 100 miles. I had no trouble there; I passed Hell’s Gate well before 11:00.

I do recall that, as I approached the rest stop at 69 miles, it dawned on me that this was the furthest I’d ridden this season. My longest training ride was only 65 miles, and I felt a whole lot worse on that ride than I was feeling at the moment. That gave me a little lift. I stopped again at 69 miles, refilled my water bottles, ate a bit more, and sat down under the tent for a few minutes with a cold towel on the back of my neck. I drank a bit, got to feeling better, and headed out again after less than 10 minutes.

The next 10 miles weren’t too bad. We were working our way towards the northeast corner of the course. There was one jog north that felt good with the wind at my back, but I knew I’d have to pay for it later when we turned to head back into the wind. That happened at about 78 miles. Mine wasn’t the only groan when we made a hard right turn and felt that wind directly in our faces.

I stopped again at 84 miles to fill the water bottles and sit down again. I wasn’t eating enough, but I feared that if I did it’d just come right back up. Cold towels on the back of the neck worked wonders to help me cool down, and I even managed to soak my bandana in ice water before taking off. With hair as short and thin as mine, I have to wear a head covering under my helmet or I end up with a rather painful sunburn.

Pulling away from the 84 mile stop, I fully planned to ride it in from there. Even as tired as I was, I couldn’t imagine not being able to ride the last 18 miles (yes, the course is actually 102 miles). I even got a good chuckle a few miles down the road when I spied the First Baptist Church of Dean (one of four buildings in the big town of Dean, TX) and thought of taking picture to send to my friend Dean. But that would have taken effort. There was a rest area at one of the other three buildings there, and I decided I’d take another break. My average speed was already way down from the nearly 20 MPH I’d established in the first half of the ride, and I had given up on the idea of finishing the course in under six hours. Plus, there was a nice big shady spot on the grass.

The stop was at 92 miles. I had only 10 miles to go, but I was ready to be done. I refilled the water bottles, took off my helmet, and laid on the grass in the shade for 20 minutes. I might even have nodded off for a few minutes. I helped a guy pump up his tire (he had a slow leak and didn’t want to take the time to replace the tube), then grudgingly climbed on the bike again for the last 10 miles.

Prehaps not surprisingly, I started feeling real good almost immediately after I got back on the road. Maybe it was the rest, and maybe it was the prospect of being finished. We were close to the big city again, meaning the roads had improved and there were people on the road again cheering us on. The other cyclists around me were feeling good too, it seemed, and we were sharing some laughs and dark humor about the state of the roads we’d so recently covered.

There’s an “outlaw” rest stop–apparently not officially part of the ride–somewhere along there, maybe three miles from the finish. I think it’s a bar. They had a heck of a party going on, and were offering free beer to riders. It was sorely tempting, but I knew that if I stopped there, I’d never complete the ride. I let my better sense prevail and rode the last few miles to the finish.

Maybe a mile from the finish, the route climbs an overpass that isn’t much of a hill, but at 100+ miles any hill seems like a mountain. Plus, it was into the wind and on a fairly rough shoulder. But getting to the top was well worth it. From there, I could see the home stretch: just down an exit ramp, a few turns through the flat and smooth city streets, and a four-block straight run to the finish line. A couple of people passed me on that straight, pushing to “finish strong.” I just rode it in at my normal pace, figuring that saving a few seconds wasn’t going to make much of a difference in my time.

I completed the ride in six hours and 55 minutes, with an average overall speed of about 14.8 MPH and an average moving speed of 16.8 MPH. I spent 6:05 pedaling and 50 minutes at rest areas. Time off the bike is what kills your time in a long ride.

My major mistake in this ride was passing up the 40 mile stop. Had I stopped there to rest, refill my water bottles, and eat something, I would not have become dehydrated. I was smart enough to realize my mistake and try to recover (a good thing), but I probably should have taken it a bit easier between 54 and 69, and eaten more even though the thought of doing so turned my stomach. It sneaks up on you, and by the time you realize you’re dehydrated, it’s too late to recover without seriously slowing down.

Still, 6:55 is close to the fastest I’ve ever covered 100 miles, and I’m reasonably happy with my performance considering my abbreviated training period this year. I’m disappointed that I made the mistake of pushing on past the 40 mile mark without stopping to refuel, but glad that I realized my mistake and took steps to minimize the damage. Next time I’ll know better. Right?

Everything considered, it was a great time. I’m looking forward to next year, tent camping and all.

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Hotter ‘N Hell Hundred – Before the ride

The Hotter ‘N Hell Hundred endurance ride was held this past weekend in Wichita Falls, TX. It’s billed as the largest one-day bicycling event in the world. I don’t know if that’s true, but it was more than twice the size of any other ride I’ve participated in. The Web site says that there were 13,067 riders, and I have no reason to doubt it. I’d never seen that many cyclists in one place before.

The HH100 is a huge event that spans at least three days. There are trail races and a criterium on Friday, the endurance ride on Saturday, and another criterium on Sunday. There’s the bike expo for at least two days, with vendors selling all manner of bicycling gear at booths inside and outside the convention center. This event is large enough that there were even some vendors selling non-cycling stuff like you’d see at summer festivals all over: jewelry, trinkets, hand-made geegaws, etc. But mostly it’s about bicycling.

It’s not all about bicycling, though. Outside the convention center there were vendors selling funnel cakes, sausage on a stick, and other stuff that I’d categorize as county fair food. Although I didn’t see any cotton candy, now that I think of it. And, of course, there was plenty of beer. I found it odd to see Lance Armstrong endorsing Michelob Ultra. I thought the guy had better taste in beer.

I didn’t even try to get a hotel room for the event. Friends told me that the hotels were booked well in advance, and the rates were outrageous. One guy I talked to on Friday said that he paid $200 for Friday night. Rather than stay in a hotel, I elected to take advantage of the free on-site tent camping. The camping area was maybe a half mile walk from the start line, right next to a building that has bathroom and shower facilities. I figured that’d be a great deal, so I borrowed a tent, packed my gear, and headed out to Wichita Falls on Friday morning.

I timed my arrival perfectly, getting there about 2:00 PM, when packet pickup opened. I located a suitable camping spot, set up the tent, got the lay of the land, and headed over to the convention center to pick up my ride packet. I purposely waited a while in order to avoid the rush of eager beavers who just had to pick up their packets as early as possible. Unlike those people, who stood in line for over 30 minutes, I found no line at all. I just surrendered my waiver form, got my race number, and then presented my race number to get my goodie bag.

The goodie bag didn’t have a whole lot of “goodies” in it. Of course I got about a dozen flyers for upcoming rides, pamphlets about bicycle safety, and pleas for support from various organizations. A couple of course maps. A coupon for a free Whataburger (goodie #1). A water bottle with the HH100 logo on it (goodie #2, considering that I forgot to bring bottles with me). A small Cliff bar. A bottle of something called Athletes Honey Milk, which tasted okay after the ride, although I should have shaken it better. Oh, and a “Go Army” wristband similar to those “Livestrong” wrisbands that everybody’s wearing. Anybody want it? Yeah, the goodie bag was a bit of a letdown.

The spaghetti dinner that I paid eight dollars for was held from five until nine inside the coliseum. We sat at tables out on the floor that is, from what I understand, usually covered with ice for the local hockey team. To tell the truth, I’m not sure why I paid for the spaghetti dinner in advance, because those mass feeding things are typically pretty bad. I was half expecting that I’d need to find some real food, but I was pleasantly surprised. How they managed to cook those mountains of pasta and sauce and get them right–not just edible, but actually good–is beyond me. But it was. Good, I mean. I ate a huge mound of spaghetti along with salad and a couple of bread sticks, and even went back for seconds. I did cheat in one respect, though: I brought my own drink into the place. The meal included tea and water, but I wanted a cola. I will have no qualms about eating their spaghettin dinner if I do the ride again. Definitely recommended.

To pass the time after dinner, I sat outside on a bench for an hour or so and carved a couple of my little dogs. It was nice there in the shade, listening to the music and chatting with people who’d stop from time to time to see what I was working on. The primary reason I was sitting around was to wait for my friend Frank Colunga and his buddies to finish their dinner before I went visiting. They drove up in two motor homes and were having a home-cooked meal rather than the spaghetti, and I didn’t want to interrupt their dinner. A great bunch of folks, and I enjoyed visiting with them for an hour or so before it got dark. They were headed off to sleep and I wandered back to my tent to do the same.

I think I mentioned that the tent camping area is right by the event center. Actually, it’s in the parking lot of the event center. There are grassy medians between paved parking rows, little grassy islands scattered throughout the unpaved parking lot, and grass on two sides of the parking lot along the road and along the river. I was surprised at how few tents there were. But that wasn’t the only surprise I’d get tonight.

Pizza Hut was there at the parking lot with a car and a sign that said, “Call <number> to order. Pick up here!” Apparently in years past they’d get calls for pizza, and instructions that said, for example, “I’m in the big blue and white dome tent over by the river,” or some such. They had so much trouble delivering that this year they decided to have a single place for pickup. They did a surprisingly brisk business.

I had planned to be in my tent and asleep by about 9:00–10:00 at the latest. I didn’t realize that there is a bar across the street from the parking lot. A bar that has live music. LOUD live music. I can sleep through anything if I’m tired enough, but I wasn’t tired enough to tune out that music. It was loud enough in the parking lot that conversation was difficult. I can’t imagine what it was like inside the bar. Fortunately, they stopped the music around 11:00. Somebody said that the city paid the bar to close early this year, due to the complaints they got last year.

With the music gone, I just had normal night noises to deal with: trains, traffic on the highway, and people arriving, setting up tents, and getting settled in. The last went on until at least 2:00 AM.  They kept waking me up when they’d drive by a little too close to the tent.

The parking lot has lights. Bright lights that stayed on all night. That didn’t really bother me, and it was kind of nice not having to fumble for a flashlight in the middle of the night when I needed to go visit the bathroom.

I did manage to get a good night’s sleep, even with the interruptions. I had set my alarm for 5:15 so that I’d have enough time to get dressed, have breakfast, get my gear together, stretch, warm up, and in general get prepared for the event. As it turned out, I didn’t need the alarm. Somebody, either by design or by accident, set off his car alarm at 5:00 AM on the dot. A car horn honking 50 feet away is an effective wake-up device.

It wasn’t all bad. Waking up at 5:00 gave me a little extra time to prepare for the ride, including checking the bike over one more time and triple-checking that I had everything I needed. There was one amusing incident.  Remember those lights that stayed on all night?  They went off at 5:30 while it was still dark.  I and everybody else around me got a good laugh out of that.  Fortunately, I had a flashlight (one of those LED lights on a headband), so the lack of the parking lot lights didn’t affect me a bit.  At 6:30 I got on the bike and headed for the starting line.

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Bicycling update

In early April I said that I was going to ride the Hotter ‘N Hell Hundred this month.  I started training, got distracted, and then started again seriously training in June.  Today is August 26 and the ride is this Saturday.  Tomorrow (Friday) I’m driving up to Wichita Falls where I’ll be camping overnight in a tent.  The ride starts at 7:30 Saturday morning.

I’m not as well prepared for the ride as I would have liked, but I don’t think I’ll have any trouble finishing the 100 miles.  The course is relatively flat and, despite the ride’s name, the weather forecast is for temperatures in the low 90s on Saturday.  My long rides (60 to 65 miles) the last four weekends have been in 100+ degree temperatures and except for one in which I forgot to drink enough water, I’ve finished the rides with no soreness and energy to spare.  As long as I remember to drink and keep myself fed, 100 miles won’t be a problem.

My bike computer read 16,788 miles in early April.  Today it sits at 18,145. I didn’t do as much training as I had planned, but it should be sufficient.  And I’ve been training on larger hills and in stronger winds than (if I’m to believe what others have told me) anything I’ll encounter in Wichita Falls.

It’ll likely be Sunday before I can post an update to say how I did in the ride.  I just hope I keep my wits about me and don’t go out too fast like I did in Waco back in 2002.

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Testing an iPad

Writing a blog entry on an iPad is rather painful, but possible. I wouldn’t want to write more than a few lines this way, but it’s nice to have in a pinch.

Editing is possible using gestures to zoom. Still, it’s tedious. There seems to be some predictive text input, but I type faster than it prompts–even one-fingered.

So far, I see the iPad as a great consumption device. I don’t yet see it replacing a notebook for creating content.

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WordPress update

I updated to the newest version of WordPress, and it broke the old theme that I’d been using for the last three years. This is the default WordPress theme and will have to do until I get around to changing things.

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What they don’t tell you

I’ve read a lot over the years about long distance cycling.  The book is Bicycling Magazine’s The Complete Book of Long-Distance Cycling.  That book covers a whole lot of ground, not only information about training and equipment, but also a whole lot about aches and pains and things to consider.  For example, there are sections on skin care (use sunscreen), eye wear (sunglasses), feet, knees, problems with your hands and arms, saddle sores, gastrointestinal problems, and even women’s issues such as interruptions to their menstrual cycles, vaginitis, and bladder infections.

You can find similar discussions on sites all over the Web.   For all that, there’s one particularly painful issue that for some reason nobody discusses and yet most men I’ve talked to encounter at some point in their riding:  sore nipples.

I’m not joking.  After a couple of hours riding the bike on a hot day, the constant rubbing of your shirt on your nipples will make them sore.  I’ve seen guys bleeding from their nipples.  And what do they do about it?  Most do nothing.  At most, they’ll unzip their jerseys so that the shirt doesn’t fit so tightly and therefore doesn’t rub as much.  It’s crazy.

Over the years, I’ve tried lots of different solutions.  The one everybody thinks of first is band-aids, but they won’t stick to sweaty skin and my experience is that they’ll just sweat right off after an hour or two if I put them on before a ride.  One guy told me to put them on the night before–swore by it.  Said it gives the adhesive time to set up or somesuch.  Didn’t work for me.  Two hours into the ride, my nips are burning and there are two band-aids floating around in my jersey.

The only thing I found that works is lip balm.  The wax-based stuff.  Get a tube of ChapStick or something similar and grease your nipples up real good before a ride.  And be sure to stuff that thing in your jersey pocket, because a few hours into the ride you’re going to want it again.  As far as I’ve been able to tell, the brand doesn’t matter.  I’ve used the expensive “Burt’s Bees” stuff, the cheapest generic stick stuff I picked up in a discount store, and everything in between.

A side benefit, beyond preventing chafed nipples, is that anybody who asks if he can use your ChapStick will immediately retract his request when you say, “Hold on,” pull up your shirt, and start rubbing it on your nipples.

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The Royal Nonesuch – almost

In Mark Twain’s The Adventures of Huckelberry Finn, Huck and Jim hook up with a traveling group of actors who are, to be kind, less than honest. To me, the most memorable stunt they pulled is in a little Arkansas town where they advertised a show:

AT THE COURTHOUSE!
for 3 nights only
The World-Renowned Tragedaians
DAVID GARRICK THE YOUNGER!
and
ENDMUND KEAN THE ELDER!
Of the London and Continental Theatres
In their Thrilling Tragedy of
THE KING’S CAMELOPARD
or
THE ROYAL NONESUCH!!!
Admission 50 cents

LADIES AND CHILDREN NOT ADMITTED

The performance, as it turns out, is in two parts. First, one of the “actors” gets up and makes a little speech praising the tragedy. Then the curtain goes up and another actor, wildly painted but otherwise naked, cavorts around on the stage for a while. The crowd, which makes up about half of the men in the town, is quite amused by the performance until the curtain comes down and they realize that they’ve been had.

Rather than admit that they’ve been had, the audience agrees to talk up the show and convince the other half of the people in the town to see the show the next night. On the third night, now that everybody in town has been had, a large number of people show up with rotten eggs and other nasty things to throw at the actors. The actors, knowing full well how these things go, light out from town without putting on the show the third night, taking with them over four hundred dollars they got for the three showings.

In the 30 years since I read that book (thank you again, Mr. C.), I have come to realize that the behavior of the first night’s crowd in this story describes very well the behavior of people in many situations. Rather than admit that they’ve been had or don’t understand something that others say is insightful, funny, profound, or whatever, people will try to convince others of the thing’s value. Even if they know that the thing is worthless. To most people, it seems, it’s much better to agree with the crowd than to point out that the Emporer has no clothes.

This behavior explains a lot of things, like the idea that Moby Dick, The Catcher in the Rye, or movies like The Thin Red Line, In The Bedroom, Titanic, or The Last Emporer have any redeeming value. It also explains most of what passes for political thought in this country. Rather than actively think about important issues and how to best solve them, all too many people glom onto whichever politician stirs their emotions, and then try to convince others that the object of their adoration has all the answers–usually by doing a poor job of parroting sound bites and without understanding the issues or the motives behind the politician’s point of view.

In Huck’s story, the foolish people in that little Arkansas town figured it out. Nobody actually believed that the “tragedy” was good or worth the 50 cents they paid to watch it, and on the third night they were going to run the rats out of town–most likely in a very unpleasant way. The American people, on the other hand, have not figured it out. Oh, sure, we’ll run the rats out of Congress periodically, but we do so by electing another set of rats who are as bad as if not worse than the ones we’re getting rid of. We don’t know what we want. All we “know” is that we don’t want what’s currently there. What we get is no better than what we had–just different on the surface.

Don’t believe me? In 1976, there was no possible way that a Republican could have been elected President. With the Watergate scandal, Nixon resigning, Agnew forced to resign in disgrace, the economy in a long period of stagflation, and our withdrawl from (one might say defeat in) Vietnam, there was no way that the American people were going to elect a Republican. And four years later, with fuel shortages, interest rates at record highs, the economy no better in the eyes of most people, and the embarrassment of the Iran hostage crises, there was no way Carter could be re-elected, or any Democrat elected President. The same thing happened to George H.W. Bush in 1992 (although he really was an ineffective President), and to Al Gore in 2000 because he had to contend with the beginnings of the dot com bubble bursting. 2008 was in many respects a repeat of 1976: there was no possible way any Republican could have been elected.

In most cases, the President was little more than the fall guy.  One could make the argument that G. W. Bush instituted policies that made Republicans anathema to many Americans, and America anathema to much of the world, but those policies were in large part ratified by a bi-partisan Congress.  Carter inherited his economic troubles, and history shows that his decision to take the bitter pill of high interest rates was the proper solution to the problem.

The same sort of thing happens with Congressional elections, most notably the 1994 election when Republicans gained majorities in both houses, and in 2006 when Democrats did the same thing.

The tribalists who make up the majority of the voting public probably don’t cross party lines very often. The number of people who will vote “Democrat” or “Republican” regardless of the person behind the label is astonishing. Some sources say that elections are decided by as few as 10 percent of the voters–those who have no strong party affiliation. Whether those people vote based on their beliefs in the candidate’s fitness for the job or for an entirely different reason like a desire to throw the bums out is an open question.

The point is that the voting public, as a group, is fickle. When election time comes, we too often blindly throw out the old in favor of the new, either not realizing or not caring that the “new” is really just the same old thing in a brand new box.

Mid-term elections are this November, and the media are making some noises about Republican gains. Or, more to the point, Democratic losses. It’s unlikely that Democrats will lose their majorities, although I suspect that their days of nearly total control are numbered. That’s all to the good, by the way: we should never allow a single party to control the Executive and both houses of the Legislative branch of government. Not that it’s mattered much in recent years. Between 2006 and 2008, President Bush and the Democrat-controlled Congress were like mutual rubber stamps. Whatever one wanted, the other granted.

My biggest fear is that Republicans, if they make significant gains in the upcoming election, will take the wrong lesson from the experience. They will call it a “mandate for change.” (How often have you heard that before?)  How quickly they forget. In 2006 and 2008, voters overwhelmingly threw out Republicans. And now we’re poised to unseat many of those we placed in those positions so recently. We aren’t voting for anybody, but rather against the current situation. The electorate is behaving like a blind man trying to put together a jigsaw puzzle in which all the pieces are shaped the same. No matter how you put it together it “fits.” But the picture is wrong–it doesn’t work. And two years from now we’ll scramble up the pieces and blindly try again.

I’m not entirely convinced that people want meaningful change. I think the voting public, as a whole, is still too comfortable with the way things are and is unwilling to put forth candidates who are fundamentally different from the slick, polished, cookie-cutter phonies we’re presented with every election season. When I see wide support for candidates who are a little rough around the edges, who supply real answers to tough questions, and who are serious about addressing real issues rather than the silly superficial crap that Congress is always focused on…then I’ll begin to have faith in our political system.

Until then, I’ll do what I can to select the best from the poor crop of candidates I’m presented with.

Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Al E. Gator

This is Albert E. Gator.  ”My friends call me Al.”

Carved from basswood, about three inches tall, pattern taken from Gary Batte’s book, Carving Crazy Critters.

Al went to my mom, who collects alligators.

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Moby Dick

Call me Jeb.

In the course of years hoarding books of all description I have acquired quite a large number. It is perhaps unsurprising that I have not yet read through my entire library, as often a new volume will be added that I must needs read most hastily. The list of unread titles has grown to such proportions that were I to consume one per day–a most unlikely achivevment considering that the bibliography consists of tomes penned by such writers as Stephen King, Leon Uris, James A. Michner, and others for whom the word “edit” apparently has no meaning–I would be reading for more than a decade and would in the intervening years surely bypass the opportunity to consume manuscripts of much greater value than what I currently possess. However, with such a variety from which to choose I never am at a loss for something with which to entertain myself.

It came to pass that my high school English instructor–some 30 years after that worthy individual and I had last communicated in person–mentioned the book that forms the title of this entry, and I realized that in all my wide ranging reading I had failed to digest that particular novel. A most grievous omission, I’ve been told, as it seems that any well read American must be able to list this story among the best that he has read. So being, I took it upon myself to seek out and correct this deficit in my admittedly haphazard education.

Obtaining a suitable copy of Mr. Melville’s most famous work turned out to be a matter of just a few minutes, as the title existed in the aforementioned library that my wife and I maintain in our home, correctly placed on the shelf in alphabetical order by the author’s last name. When one has only a handful of books, one can haphazardly place them hither and yon, and recall with little effort the location of a particular volume. As one ages and the number of books grows, memory becomes a more unreliable device and thus requires that some artificial order be placed on the positioning of things lest they be lost but for a volume-by-volume search that would without question occupy more time than the actual reading.

In the nearly half-century I have been blessed with existence on this mortal plane, I have heard many things, mostly good, about Moby Dick. I do not recall, however, any mention of the book’s great weight. At five hundred forty three pages (in the faux-leather-bound edition that graces our collection), the volume is much larger than I had expected. Size, of course, is no indication of a story’s quality although it has often been noted that a longer story must needs be better than a short one, if only to hold the reader’s interest for such a duration. Boring is never forgivable, but at least one can endure an exceedingly dull story if it is short.

On an aside, I’ve often heard that Moby Dick starts with the words, “Call me Ishmael.” Perhaps the story itself starts with those words, but at least in my edition the book starts with a dozen or more pages of historical quotes–some quite obscure–about whales. In retrospect a quote or two or perhaps one full page at most would have been sufficient, I think, to give the impression that the author was intending. But filling fully two percent of the book with such drivel tries the reader’s patience at the very beginning. Had I not been convinced over years of positive reviews that I was in for a delightful read, I would have taken this early waste of time as a warning. But I soldiered on, putting aside my annoyance at the gratuitous quotes, and began the story proper.

Ishmael begins his tale quite engagingly, describing the conditions under which he found himself signing on to a whaling vessel in the great whaling capital of the world: Nantucket. With but few exceptions, the story of his trip to Nantucket, his meeting and new friendship with Queequeg, his initial interview with the owners of the good ship Pequod, and everything leading up to departure was interesting and entertaining. By the time the lines were cast off and the Pequod was leaving Nantucket harbor, I felt as one would be expected to feel at the start of a great voyage; looking forward to the promised adventure on the High Seas.

Sadly, as so often happens with grand adventures, the reality is much less than the anticipation. After preparing for much excitement, the ship is loaded, crew aboard, farewells shared, lines cast, and once the mast disappears over the horizon, it becomes apparent that the “grand adventure” amounts to day upon dreary day of nothing but the sea, the wind in the sails, and endless drudgery: working, eating, sleeping, and perhaps from time to time hanging on for dear life as Mother Nature does her best to capsize, crash, rip apart, or otherwise destroy the ship and thus leave you stranded in the boundless sea, clinging to the flotsam hoping against all odds that another ship will come by to extract you from the waves before your strength gives out and you slip into the deep, never to surface again.

After the first one hundred pages, the good ship Pequod sets sail and Ishmael becomes tiresome, regaling us with page upon ponderous page of information about whales, whaling, and all manner of things tangentially related, occasionally returning to the ship and crew as if reminding himself that there is a story in here somewhere, and along the way relating one or two mildly entertaining bits that ultimately leave the reader unsatisfied. The experience is reminiscent of being stranded at the old sailors’ home, listening to its most seasoned occupant who has perhaps three teeth left and half that many brain cells still functioning as he alternately sips his ale (“Avast! In my day we had proper grog, not this watered down swill that passes for ale among you landlubbers”) rambling tirelessly on about his career on the sea.

One could forgive the asides and the occasional insertion of a fact or three about the business of whaling but for a few egregious errors that the author, a supposedly well regarded writer in his time, should have known better than to commit so voluminously. Whereas it’s important that the reader understand at least some small amount of nautical and whaling jargon, such information should overall be brief, and be presented to the reader in an engaging style. The author’s presentation here is atrocious; as though he took essays written for popular periodicals of the time and slapped them into the text, arranging and lightly editing them so that they seem to fit into the story, but to anybody giving it more than a cursory glance–say, the attention required to actually read the book–the story looks like a cartoon ransom note. Furthermore, and more to the author’s discredit, those informative asides are too often filled with speculation, half truths, and downright fabrications all of which are presented as fact.

Throughout, Melville illustrates his facility with language by never letting a simple word do the work of a convoluted sentence. Nor does he skimp on the long, rambling, and ultimately incoherent paragraphs, as if the value of the writing is increased by having to read over the passage four or five times just to pick out a simple concept that could have been related in one or two short, simple, and interesting sentences. One can hardly escape the thought that the Levianthanic prose is a great joke played on the reader by the author. A grand joke it is, too, as countless learned scholars and critics continue to lavish unctuous praise on the book a century and a half after it was penned, despite the offenses so obviously committed by the author.

Finally, after wading through hundreds of pages of irrelevant asides with a few colorful anecdotes (related again with cetacean ponderosity) thrown in, and an occasional reference to Captain Ahab and perhaps a half-dozen queries of, “Have you seen the white whale?” we reach the end of the journey: the spotting and chase of the book’s eponymous antagonist–or, depending on your point of view, protagonist. This climax, too, is muted by the less than exciting writing, and the reader is left at the end wondering why he wasted countless precious hours (and, before the advent of electricity, one must conclude, precious candle wick or lamp oil) struggling with the tome and hoping against all reasonable expectation that there was some redeeming value to be found in the book.

I find it curious and more than a bit humorous that in a book about whaling–an occupation in which the primary goal is to keep the blubber and throw out the meat–the author (it’s unlikely that any reputable editor would have allowed this manuscript to leave his desk unscathed) decided to keep the meat and the blubber as well. It is little surprise, considering that the book is easily more than three-fifths blubber outright, and the meat is so marbled with fat that even a light trimming would reduce it by half, and a further treatment by a skilled editor would complete the job of turning this overweight, ponderous and ultimately dull sperm whale of a novel into a sleek and playful dolphin of a story that one could read and enjoy in less than two hours.

As a cure for insomnia–a condition that seemingly afflicts ever more people as time goes on–I would heartily recommend Melville’s Moby Dick. Other potential uses would be casual placement in a conspicuous location in order to impress visitors with the quality of your reading material. The tome would also serve well as a paperweight or, in a pinch, fireplace kindling. I would not, however, recommend it for the stated purpose–reading–unless you are compelled to do so by some outside force (say, a school assignment). Perhaps those who study mass delusions, too, would like to read the book in an attempt to understand how, after one hundred and sixty years, people still cling to the ridiculous notion that the book’s unsubtle and superficial symbolism, use of language, and incoherent exploration of themes (some controversial) qualify it as a treasure of world literature.

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But isn’t that what the Web is for?

The Terms of Use for the site yobi.tv includes the following (the emphasis is mine):

8. RESTRICTIONS ON USE
You may use this Site only for purposes expressly permitted by this Site. You may not use this Site for any other purpose, including any commercial purpose, without YOBI’s express prior written consent. For example, you may not (and may not authorize any other party to) (i) co-brand this Site, or (ii) frame this Site, or (iii) hyper-link to this Site, without the express prior written permission of an authorized representative of YOBI. For purposes of these Terms of Use, “co-branding” means to display a name, logo, trademark, or other means of attribution or identification of any party in such a manner as is reasonably likely to give a user the impression that such other party has the right to display, publish, or distribute this Site or content accessible within this Site. You agree to cooperate with YOBI in causing any unauthorized co-branding, framing or hyper-linking immediately to cease.

Far be it from me to violate their Terms, which is why the name of their site, above, is not hyperlinked.

I thought this particular idiocy had been eliminated years ago.  If you don’t want people to link to you, why the heck are you on the Web at all?  I think somebody needs to rein in the lawyers again.

Posted in Idiocy, Internet | 1 Comment

“No discrimination” means exactly that

The Supreme Court handed down a number of decisions in the last few days, prior to taking a summer break.  The decision that seemingly everybody is talking about has to do with guns:  the Court said that states and local governments can’t impose tighter restrictions than those imposed by the federal government.  In particular, city ordinances that ban handguns outright were found to be unconstitutional.  I have to admit to being a bit surprised that this was a 5-4 decision.

Another 5-4 decision, and one that I think should have been a 9-0 decision involved the University of California’s Hastings College of Law–a public institution–and a student group called the Christian Legal Society (CLS).  The first part of the Court’s decision explains the issue quite well:

Hastings College of the Law (Hastings), a school within the University of California public-school system, extends official recognition to student groups through its “Registered Student Organization” (RSO) program. Several benefits attend this school-approved status, including the use of school funds, facilities, and channels of communication, as well as Hastings’ name and logo. In exchange for recognition, RSOs must abide by certain conditions. Critical here, all RSOs must comply with the school’s Nondiscrimination Policy, which tracks state law barring discrimination on a number of bases, including religion and sexual orientation. Hastings interprets this policy, as it relates to the RSO program, to mandate acceptance of all comers: RSOs must allow any student to participate, become a member, or seek leadership positions, regardless of her status or beliefs.

CLS requires that all members and employees, as a condition of their employment or membership, acknowledge in writing a Statement of Faith that, in part, forbids “participation in or acceptance of a sexually immoral lifestyle,” which is defined as sex outside of a heterosexual marriage.  Such a condition is obviously at odds with the non discrimination policy of Hastings College.

CLS tries to argue that Hastings’ restrictions on RSOs violate the CLS members’ rights under the first and fourteenth amendments to the Constitution.  That’s silly.  Hastings has not attempted to change the CLS policies.  It has simply withheld recognition of a group that does not abide by the school’s nondiscrimination policy.

I’m flabbergasted that four Supreme Court justices came down on the other side of this issue.  I haven’t yet read their dissenting opinions–something I really have to do.  This decision seems so obvious that I can’t imagine what rational reason a judge could have for ruling that Hastings should recognize the group.  But we’ll see.

Posted in Odds 'n Ends | 4 Comments

Captcha this!

I have trouble with a lot of those “captcha” systems.  When the letters are oddly curved, run together, or otherwise obscured, I have a tough time.  I thought this one wouldn’t be so tough, though.  Until I saw the note, “it is case sensitive.”

The “y”, “e”, “4″, and “u” are simple.  But is that “w” or “W”?  “z” or “Z”?

I wasn’t going to send a comment.  And, seeing as how I can’t reliably determine what to type here, I wouldn’t even attempt it.  Knowing my luck, I’d get into an infinite loop of failures and ambiguous prompts.

Posted in Idiocy, Internet | Comments Off

Why risk it?

Big news this week about 16-year-old Abby Sunderland, whose solo ’round-the-world trip was cut short the other day by a storm in the Indian Ocean.  As she put it in her blog, “one long wave, and one short mast.”  A French fishing vessel plucked her off her yacht this morning and headed back to civilization.  The yacht is adrift and probably will sink.  Too bad the boat is lost, but I’m happy that Abby is well.

I’m a bit surprised at the public reaction to this incident.  A large number of people have expressed their shock and outrage at the parents for allowing their 16-year-old daughter to embark on such a voyage.  “Sixteen is too young,” they say, “teenagers don’t have the same ability as adults to evaluate risk and do the right thing.”  Then they go on to regurgitate the oft-reported statistics about teenagers and automobile accidents.

It is true, by the way, that teenagers are involved in a disproportionate number of auto accidents when compared to the rest of the population.  And it’s pretty well known why:  teenage drivers tend to understimate hazardous driving situations and are less able than older drivers to recognize potentially dangerous situations.

It’s not age, but experience that matters.  When I was a teenager, I had a friend whose dad was a race car driver.  Ron, too, raced cars on the track.  He was an incredibly safe driver on the road.  He knew better than most drivers–regardless of age–how to evaluate a situation and react accordingly.  I also know drivers in their 40s and 50s who I will not ride with again, ever, because they have shown a shocking inability to anticipate other drivers’ actions and see a dangerous situation developing.

Abby Sunderland has been sailing with her family all her life.  She’s reported to be an excellent sailor and over the years has proven her ability to handle a boat in all manner of situations.  She’s likely a much better and more experienced sailor than most sailors twice her age.  Her parents, by all reports, are responsible people who encourage their children to follow their dreams, but also make sure that the children are well prepared before attempting anything too wild.

I, for one, fully support parents who encourage their children to create and achieve far-reaching goals.  In doing so, the children are learning perhaps the most important lesson that all too many parents fail to teach:  the ability to take a dream from inception to completion.  They learn to develop a plan, gain the knowledge and skill to accomplish their goal, and then do it.  People talk about building self confidence in children, but too many parents balk when it comes to actually giving the kids the opportunity to rely on themselves.

I suspect that in the year or more since she started preparing for her trip, and especially in the six months she spent alone at sea in a 40-foot boat, Abby learned more about herself and how to achieve goals than most people learn in a lifetime.  That she survived the storm that destroyed her boat–a storm that would likely have killed an inexperienced sailor–shows me that she was able to identify and react properly to the dangerous situation.  A big wave broke the mast, true, but experienced sailors will tell you that such a thing can happen to anybody.  30-foot seas are a challenge for anybody in a small craft.

Kids don’t learn anything worthwhile if you coddle them.  They learn by pushing their limits:  often trying things that others view as dangerous.  My friends who have achieved the most in life are those who did “dangerous” things as teenagers:  bull riding, skydiving, auto racing, motorcycle racing, playing with old radios (think about the dangers of high voltage power transformers), etc.  In almost all cases the parents were involved in making sure that the kids were prepared for whatever they were doing:  guiding, not preventing.

Conversely, my friends who were coddled as teenagers and forbidden from doing “dangerous” things (other than driving–for reasons I can’t understand, parents let their kids drive even when the kids show a shocking lack of ability to manage risk) either had a very difficult time learning to take risk as they got older, or are now coddling themselves and their own kids and not accomplishing anything.

Why risk it?  Because there is no advancement without risk.  The key is managing the risk:  building the knowledge and skill to identify and react to hazardous situations, but making plans to avoid those situations as much as possible.  In the specific case of Abby Sunderland, she had the skill and knowledge, and as much as possible she avoided the risks.  But, as she said, “you don’t sail through the Indian Ocean without getting in at least one storm.”  It’s part of the journey.  It’s just unfortunate that this particular storm wrecked her boat.

Congratulations, Abby, on your attempt.  You didn’t make it around the world, but you accomplished a great deal in trying.

To Mr. and Mrs. Sunderland, thank you for allowing your daughter (and your son, last year) to show us what young people can accomplish given the opportunity, guidance, and encouragement.  I hope that other parents will learn from your example.

Posted in Odds 'n Ends | 2 Comments

Home remedies to stop bleeding

You’re probably not surprised to discover that one thing wood carvers talk about frequently is how to treat minor cuts.  It seems that even the most cautious carvers wind up with a cut now and then.

In one such discussion recently, somebody mentioned putting black pepper on a cut to stop the bleeding.  I had never heard of that one, but there’s eHow article: How to Treat Cuts with Black Pepper.  eHow is hardly a reliable source for medical information, and I don’t place much faith in the countless alternative medicine sites that have similar content about the use of black pepper on cuts.  Still, I wonder.

It turns out that black pepper is only one of many such home remedies.  I’ve also seen recommendations of flour, cayenne pepper powder, ground coffee, and corn starch.  This leads me to believe that it’s not the particular substance but rather that the substance is powdered.  The powder clots the blood on the surface, which would be enough to stop the bleeding on a minor cut.

Some sites also claim medicinal benefits to some of these remedies–especially the black pepper and cayenne pepper.  I have not been able to find any reliable information about that.

Anybody else hear of these remedies?  Do they work simply by clotting the blood at the surface, or are there some astringent or antihemorrhaghic properties to these recommended substances?

Posted in Odds 'n Ends | 3 Comments

Is there a syndication format standard for media?

At work, we’re trying to make our media firehose available to other developers.  One thought is to publish a syndication feed through Pubsubhubbub.  I can easily do that, but I don’t know which format to use.

Pubsubhubbub was originally designed to support the Atom Syndication Format.  But there’s no widely accepted standard for publishing media information with Atom.  It looks like most sites that publish media use RSS 2.0 and the Media RSS extensions.

I touched on the development of syndication formats in a 2004 blog entry.  Atom “won” by becoming a standard, but RSS (mostly RSS 2.0) is so prevalent that it’s unlikely to be pushed out any time soon.

The developers of Pubsubhubbub included support for RSS in July of last year, and the latest specification (0.3) includes support.  This is both good and bad:  good because now all those sites that use RSS 2.0 can participate in Pubsubhubbub, and bad because those of us building readers still have to deal with two competing formats.

Also on the bad side, and especially pertinent to me, is the lack of any kind of media extensions for Atom.  There’s been some chatter in the past about using the Media RSS extensions inside of Atom, but it appears that nothing ever came of that.  Atom has an “enclosure” element that adds some media capability, but it’s pretty minimal.  The Atom Publishing Protocol specification allows for media, but not to any great extent.   There’s also a proposed standard for Atom Media Extensions, although I find no mention of it on the IETF’s site.

So I’m left with this choice:  publish RSS 2.0 with Media RSS extensions (both non-standard), or publish a severely crippled Atom standard standard document.  Since it’s likely that RSS 2.0 will continue to thrive and it looks like there are no standard media extensions to Atom, it looks like I’m stuck with RSS.  Unfortunate, but that’s the way it goes.

We love standards.  That’s why we have so many of them.

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Another lil dog

Work and a few other things have kept me busy and unable to do much in the way of carving the last few months.  I did manage to finish a little dog for my nephew’s birthday.  A few weeks late, but I got it to him.

The dog started out as a branch on an elm tree in the yard.  It was part of the big limb that the wind took down last spring.  Finish is nothing fancy:  just the Howard Feed ‘N Wax that I use on most of my found wood carvings.

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Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts today, June 1, and goes until November 30.   The Eastern Pacific season started on May 15, and also goes to November 30.  We had our first Pacific storm just the other day:  tropical storm Agatha hit Guatemala.

Since at least 1994, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has issued predictions on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.  They issue three predictions each year:

  1. In December, they publish their predictions for the upcoming season.
  2. In April, they publish an updated prediction for the season that will start on June 1.
  3. In August, they publish yet another update.

You might wonder why they publish an update in the middle of the season.  The answer can be found in their FAQ:

Although the Atlantic basin hurricane season starts on June 1, more than 90 percent of all tropical cyclone activity and 95 percent of major hurricane activity occurs after August 1 in an average season. In general, our seasonal forecasts issued on August 1 show the greatest skill.

The TMP also publishes an annual report that summarizes the most recent hurricane season and compares their predictions with the actual activity.  Their forecasts page has links to the most recent forecasts, and a way to select previous forecasts.

Whereas the forecasts make for interesting reading, I was especially impressed with the summaries.  The authors are very up front about how they derive the numbers for their forecasts, and the summaries accurately present their successes and their failures.  Everything is out in the open.  They don’t appear to be pushing a particular agenda, but rather reporting the results of their observations and using the observed data to try to understand and predict future behavior.  This is what I was taught science is about.

One thing I’ve wondered for the past several years is what caused the recent increase in tropical cyclone activity.  That there has been an increase is no secret, as I pointed out last year in Tracking Hurricanes.  A common cry is, “Global warming is causing more hurricanes.”  TMP’s 2009 Summary addresses that, starting on page 39.  The entire section is well worth reading.  A few quotes are particularly relevant:

Despite the global warming of the sea surface that has taken place between the mid 1970s to late 1990s and the general warming of the last century, the global numbers of hurricanes and their intensity have not shown increases in recent years except for the Atlantic since 1995 (Klotzbach 2006).

Although global surface temperatures have increased over the last century and over the last 30 years, there is no reliable data available to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the globe’s other tropical cyclone basins.

In other words, if an increase in sea surface temperature caused an increase in hurricane activity, one would expect the increased activity everywhere, not just in the Atlantic.

So, what’s the cause?

This large increase in Atlantic major hurricanes is primarily a result of the multi-decadal increase in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) that is not directly related to global sea surface temperatures or CO2 increases. Changes in ocean salinity are believed to be the driving mechanism.

Interesting.  Changes in the salt content of the water, which is a localized phenomenon.

The report then gives a detailed counter to the global warming argument, showing that in two recent 25-year periods (1945-1969, during a weak cooling trend; and 1970-1994, a general warming trend), the warmer period had only 48% as many hurricanes as the cooler period.  Looked at in isolation, you would conclude that cooler temperatures caused more hurricanes.  That’s obviously not the case, though, when you look at all the data.  So you have to conclude that the increase in hurricane activity is due to something else.

If you haven’t yet caught on, I’m impressed with the way the TMP presents their research.  I encourage you to give it a look.

Posted in Odds 'n Ends | 1 Comment

Podly.TV is alive!

It’s been a long road.  Back in January of 2007, David Stafford and I came up with the idea of writing a media search engine.  We thought it’d take maybe a year.

We actually had something in a little more than a year, but it wasn’t very interesting.  It worked, but nobody would have been very interested in it if we had released it to the world.

By then we had grown to four people.  We stuck with it, improved our crawler and indexing technology, and released two or three other incarnations to very limited audiences.  Those attempts, too, were less than successful, but they gave us a lot of valuable information about what people like (and don’t like), and how users want to view online video.

It’s been a long road, and sometimes a bit discouraging, but we’re finally able to present an early version of our new product, Podly.TV.

Take it for a test drive.  Browse the channels.  If you don’t see anything you like, do a search and create your own channels.  It’s totally free.  Anybody can sign up and create a personal channel list.  We’re adding new videos constantly, and new video sources on a regular basis.

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Why Google will win

I don’t know who’s calling the shots over there at Google, but they’re absolutely brilliant.

Google’s technology is impressive, no doubt. They’ve come a long way in the 12 years or so since two college kids named Sergi Brin and Larry Page came up with a way to greatly improve the quality of Web search results. They met quite a bit of resistance when they went looking for funding to build a company. Everybody thought that Yahoo owned search, and nobody thought you could make money with search. “You’re going to spend millions of dollars to build a phone book of the Web? How will you make money?”

Around the same time, there was a small group at Microsoft who wanted to build search. Microsoft’s corporate leaders shut that down pretty quickly, for much the same reason: “there’s no money in search.” In addition, and perhaps more importantly, Microsoft hadn’t really embraced the Internet. Sure, Internet Explorer was in ascendance, mostly due to Netscape’s incompetence, and other parts of the company were making noise about using the Web, but at heart Microsoft remained a shrink-wrap software company. Their business was selling Windows and Office. They embraced the Internet to the extent required to sell those products.

Microsoft eventually embraced search, first grudgingly–”It’s something we have to provide”–and finally, after realizing that there was money to be made, by committing serious resources. But by then it was too late.

It was too late because Google had figured out how to make money with search: first by displaying advertisements on search pages, then with Adwords, Adsense, and other cooperative advertising programs. Google was transformed from a search engine with some incredibly impressive technology into an advertising company that understands how to make billions of dollars a few pennies at a time.

And Google is an advertising company. Make no mistake. Google is in the business of placing ads on your screen, and doing so in a manner that makes you more likely to click on the ad. That means making them as relevant as possible and walking that fine line between visiblity and unobtrusiveness. It also means getting their ads everywhere, and everything that Google does furthers that goal, directly or indirectly.

Google’s technology has two jobs: deliver ads, and to increase their audience. I know very little about how they deliver ads–that’s their proprietary process and, one might argue, the heart of their business. But they’re transparent about how they increase their audience. They provide arguably the best results of any general search engine available. With YouTube, they dominate Web video. They have a whole bunch of other free services and software–translation tools, Google Chrome Web browser, Google Maps, Google Earth, Google Books, Patent Search, Blogger, Mail, SketchUp, Images, and many more–that make it easier to use the Internet or provide online replacements for traditionally client-bound tools. By making it easier to use the Internet, they get more people on the Internet.

Google also produces and makes available an incredible amount of program source code that developers can use or include in their products for free. Just check out Google code sometime. It’s full of proven working code that Google paid their employees to develop, and is now giving away for free. It’s not that they’re altruistic. They know that by making it easier for developers to create quality Web sites, their audience is growing.

Two recent (well, one not so recent) developments show Google’s commitment. First, the Chrome Web browser. This is Google’s free browser, which is arguably the best on the market today. One might ask why Google would go to the expense and effort of creating a new browser and then make large parts of its source code available (see the Chromum project)? I can’t say for sure, but here’s what I think.

I think that Google wants to do things with the Web that other browsers (Internet Explorer, Firefox, Opera, Safari, etc.) don’t currently support. Although it’s often possible for Google to convince the people in control of those browsers to support new features, Google is left waiting for support. If they control the browser, then Google can start pushing new technologies on their own schedule.

Whatever the reason behind it, Google Chrome is building market share. It used to be that Microsoft’s Internet Explorer had 70 to 75% of the browser market, followed by FireFox in the 20 to 25% range, and everybody else was down in the noise. The most recent numbers I have put IE below 60% for the first time, Firefox still hanging in there around 20 to 25%, and the rest being shared by Opera, Safari, and Chrome. Except Chrome is taking market share, most of which is coming from Internet Explorer.

The more recent development is Google’s support of the WebM project, a high-quality, open, and free video format. I cannot overemphasize the importance of this development. WebM combines a container format with free video and audio codecs so that anybody can create and distribute video royalty-free without having to worry about patents or other intellectual property concerns. Google spent something like $100 million to obtain the rights to the VP8 video codec in order to make this possible. Then they turned around and made it freely available to anybody. Why? Because ubiquitous free video gives Google a huge increase in surface area–a larger audience–that they can exploit for the purpose of delivering ads.

From the outside, Google’s business plan really does look as simple as, “Make the Web easy to use so that we can deliver more ads to more people.”

In the process, Google is steamrolling over a number of entrenched companies who thought they had it made. Consider Adobe, whose Flash player is currently The Standard for online video. Back in 2007, Flash 8 had something like 95% (perhaps higher) penetration. That is, 95% of computers connected to the Internet had Flash installed. Why? Because of YouTube. When Adobe released Flash version 9, it achieved more than 90% penetration in just a few months, again in large part (perhaps primarily) because YouTube went to Flash 9 for their video. Adobe owned Web video.

But Adobe dropped the ball. For reasons I’ll never understand, Adobe still clings to the idea that Flash is for creating rich Web apps. The ability to do rich client things in a Web page is cool, and there was a time when Flash was the best way to do it. But browsers and computers are more capable now. I know from experience that it’s now much easier to build rich applications with JavaScript than it ever was with Flash. And all you need is a modern browser. There’s no need to download and install a Flash control to do it.

After Google’s WebM announcement last week, Adobe made a press release saying that they’ll support WebM “in a future version.” YouTube will continue to use Flash for low-quality videos. Starting soon, though, higher quality video will be delivered with WebM. You have to be blind not to see what’s coming: the eventual removal of Flash support on YouTube. But it’s already over for Adobe Flash. They will only see decreasing market share. And Adobe has nobody to blame but themselves. They ran into much the same thing clinging to their old .FLV format when the rest of the world was moving to .MP4. The reason? They make money by selling very expensive software packages that create video files. Much like their PDF tools, they give away the reader and charge a lot of money for software that creates the files that their free players read.

With WebM, all that goes away. There are already FFmpeg patches for WebM, and likely will be some very good free tools.

Microsoft, too, is getting steamrolled by Google. After Google’s WebM announcement, Microsoft said that they’re very excited about the new technology and that Internet Explorer 9 will fully support it as long as the user has installed the proper codec. If you’re not familiar with the world of codecs, don’t feel bad. Understanding codecs is not something a user should have to do. Finding and installing the proper codec can be incredibly frustrating and fraught with danger. If you go looking for a codec for Media Player, for example, you’ll find yourself confused and in very real danger of inadvertently downloading and installing some malware.

For Microsoft to say, “as long as the user has installed the proper codec” is like GM saying that the new car they sell you will be fully functional as long as you find and install a compatible engine.

And don’t expect Microsoft’s Media Player to support WebM any time soon. According to Microsoft’s own Information about the Multimedia file types that Windows Media Player supports, they don’t even support MP4. Granted, that article was written two years ago, but it covers Media Player 11, which is the most current version. That article says, “You can play back .mp4 media files in Windows Media Player when you install DirectShow-compatible MPEG-4 decoder packs. DirectShow-compatible MPEG-4 decoder packs include the Ligos LSX-MPEG Player and the EnvivioTV.” In other words, you have to install a codec made by a third party in order to play a video format that the rest of the world embraced five years ago.

The announcement of WebM is also pushing innovation in another area: the server. The day after the WebM announcement, somebody was streaming WebM from the Cherokee Web server. One day! This has some very interesting ramifications. An open media format combined with an open Web server (like Apache) means that a free media server is not far behind. There goes Adobe’s Flash Media Server business. And quite possibly Microsoft’s Home Media Server, especially if somebody releases an easy Linux configuration that includes this hypothetical (but soon to be realized) media server, backup and data recovery, and document management.

It’s interesting to note that Google hasn’t had to “target” any of these companies in order to take them out. In fact, Google probably isn’t even interested in “taking them out.” Google is just doing what it needs to do in order to grow the business. If it means investing hundreds of millions of dollars so that more people will come online to watch video, then so be it. If Google makes a few pennies every time somebody watches a video online, that hundred million bucks will be returned in short order.

The really funny part here is that both Microsoft and Adobe had to see it coming. It’s not like Google made a surprise announcement last week: there was a big splash when they acquired the VP8 technology a few months back, and Google has been telegraphing this move since at least 2007, when they paid $1.5 billion for YouTube. That kind of investment says, “We want to own Web video because we think we can make money at it.” No, Microsoft and Adobe saw this coming and knew that they were powerless to stop it. But rather than embrace VP8 and try to find a way to work with it, they clung to their own product plans hoping that some imaginary Maginot Line would block Google’s advance. Adobe, Microsoft, and other companies whose businesses are built on artificial scarcity (selling bits) are living in the past and will continue to see their market share stolen by companies like Google that can provide better products for free.

You’re going to see this same thing play out all over again in the world of television. Google recently announced a deal with Intel and Sony that will put Google TV on Sony television sets. Today, something like 25% of all new televisions sold are Internet ready. Google is ready to go there, and not just because it increases the surface area for their Web advertisements, but also because it gives Google a platform from which to launch an assault on the television advertising market ($70 billion annually in the U.S. alone).

Google’s competition for that market is a handful of old media companies and Madison Avenue advertising firms, both of which have grown fat and complacent. Sure, they’ve been hit by Internet advertising over the years, but it’s been more of a slow leak in a dike rather than a tsunami that overwhelms the entire system. Those companies probably aren’t smart enough to see it coming yet, but when they do see Google riding the wave, they’ll probably all hunker down behind the dike and hope for the best. And then complain bitterly (read: try to win through litigation) when they discover that they lost the war while they were sitting there with their thumbs up their butts trying to decide if they should do anything.

Remember, you heard it here first.

I’m not trying to paint Google in a bad light at all. On the contrary, I have nothing but admiration for them. They’re going about their business. If the entrenched companies can’t keep up, it’s not Google’s fault. While the old media companies are refining the horse-drawn carriage, Google is hard at work on the V8 engine. In the process, Google is making all manner of things available to Internet users and developers, and actually encouraging us to build products that leverage the free services that the company offers. Given the choice between begging for access from the old media companies or accepting the bounty freely offered by Google, I’ll throw in with Google.

Posted in Computers, Internet | 2 Comments

Command line tools strike again

Every morning at 3:00, one of our servers grabs the latest code from our source repository and runs the build script.  As you would expect, the build usually completes without error and everything’s fine.  From time to time, though, one of us will forget to check in a file or dependent project, and the build will fail.  At that point, it’s nice to have a way to tell everybody that the build failed, and why.

The build is an MSBUILD script that compiles all of our projects and dependencies, and then copies the results to a staging directory from which we can run unit tests or build distribution packages for our internal customers (see below).  To this point, everything can be done with a minimal batch file script, the MSBUILD program supplied with the .NET development tools, and of course the subversion command line client.  We have one other tool called sendEmail that notifies me of the build status.

I’d like to notify everybody when the build fails, but doing so requires that I tell them why it failed.  And the generated build log is very large:  about 120 kilobytes, most of which is irrelevant.  The important information is typically the last 10 or so lines of the file, and that’s what I’d like to send to people when the build fails.  Those lines say, in effect, “The build failed for these reasons.”  A programmer who receives that message can quickly determine if it’s his responsibility, and take steps to fix the problem.

The only trouble I have is that there is no simple way with Windows-supplied tools to extract those pertinent lines from the file.  At least, I can’t think of a way.  But the GNU awk (gawk) can do it trivially.

When the build fails, the last thing that MSBUILD outputs is a line that says, “Build FAILED”, followed by some lines that describe the error or errors.  So all I need is a program that will go through the file, locate the “Build FAILED” line, and then output that line and all following lines to the end of the file.  It’s been 20 years since I did any awk programming, but this script was simple:

gawk "{ if (/^Build FAILED/) { doit=1 } if (doit) print $0 }" < buildlog.txt

Done and done.

The only problem I have now is deciding whether I want to install the full GNU Tools for Windows package on my server, or if I should just grab Gawk for Windows.  The full package is probably the right way to go because I suspect I’ll be needing some other tools in the future.

Either way, I’m annoyed that Windows doesn’t include these simple text processing tools.  I can perhaps understand why they don’t exist in desktop versions, but we do these types of things on servers all the time, and the standard server install should include a more robust toolset.

Above I mentioned “internal customers.”  In reality, we are our own customers.  There are only five of us here, and one of us doesn’t use the tools that the build creates.  In light of that, it’d be easy to take a more cavalier attitude towards our build process.  I’ve found, though, that things run smoother if, as a programmer, I think of the users of my software (in this case, the crawler subsystem and the tools that process the collected data) in much the same way as I would an external customer.  Even though the primary user of the crawler is me.  I wear a number of different hats around here (as does everybody else–we’re a startup, after all), and it’s useful to think of Jim the SysAdmin as a separate person from Jim the Programmer.  That way, when we can afford to hire a system administrator to take those duties from me, the systems will already be in place for him to step right in.

Like source code version control, a formal build process is one of those things that you don’t need to implement until the size of your project team exceeds zero people.

Posted in Computers, Programming | 3 Comments